INS Vikramaditya (image from the internet)
Budget versus Necessity
The Indian military is undergoing what may be its most significant reorganisation since India’s independence, with considerable implications for its future strategic posture. One important issue that has been brought to the fore is the role of the Indian Navy as a regional power projection force built around three aircraft carriers. The government’s decision on this issue will have significant implications for the region. The Indian Navy currently operates one carrier, the 45,000 tonne Russian origin INS Vikramaditya, with a second, the indigenous 37,500 tonne INS Vikrant, having just entered sea trials, both being ‘ski-jump’ carriers. But the Indian Navy regards a third, conventional ‘flat-topped’ aircraft carrier, which is planned to be of 65,000 tonne displacement for superior power projection capabilities, as an absolute necessity. The Indian Navy’s plans for a three carrier based force structure, first proposed in the early 2000s, has been accepted in principle. This would allow the navy to operate two carrier task groups at all times, with a total fighter strength of more than 150 aircraft. However, India’s new Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat, who took office in January 2020, has stated that budgetary constraints will force the navy to defer plans for the third carrier. Some in the government see the third aircraft carrier as a “frightfully expensive white elephant” arguing that India can ill-afford such expenditure on one single platform when there are many other requirements crying for immediate attention. This view is reinforced by India’s bitter experience in acquiring the Vikramaditya from Russia, when the original price rose from US $ 974 million to $2.35 billion. Together with 45 MiG-29K aircraft and additional modifications, the overall price came to somewhere between $6 billion and $7 billion. This experience has been compounded by delays and escalating costs of the first Indian-built aircraft carrier, the Vikrant, which is already more than five years behind schedule. With cost overruns and 36 aircraft, the total price is likely to be $10–11 billion. The third proposed carrier, (INS Viraat, although many refer to this as the Vishal), still in conceptual stages, is expected to cost $6–8 billion and take 10–14 years to build. Including its air component of Super Hornets or Rafale Ms at current prices, the total cost is likely to be in the order of $16–17 billion. General Bipin Rawat has given hints at his priorities in view of likely budgetary constraints over the next few years. His focus is on strengthening the land defences against China and Pakistan and hence his priority is for the army, followed by the air force. The army certainly has urgent requirements for long-pending infantry weapons, artillery and modernisation of the strike corps requirements. The Indian Air Force’s combat squadron strength is down to 32, well below its projected operational requirement of 42 squadrons. In his view, the navy should focus on submarines and smaller surface ships, principally in a defensive role. In his capacity as the military advisor to the government and as secretary of the newly created Department of Military Affairs, in addition to his primary role as the permanent chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Rawat’s views could well carry the day.
'An aircraft carrier with the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS)
However, India’s rising stature, its geopolitical interests and its role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region necessitate a strong navy with significant reach and power projection capabilities. Carrier-based airpower is a critical component in responding to contingencies rapidly at extended ranges and would complement land-based air power. With China accelerating its aircraft carrier developments, this country will be able to deploy a carrier task group in the Indian Ocean sooner rather than later. The IN’s third carrier, therefore, assumes great importance for India’s maritime strategy. The Indian Navy has been operating ‘ski-jump’ carriers for nearly four decades, which provide significant cost savings but have major operational constraints. Currently, the Vikramaditya operates a maximum of 24 MiG-29K fighters, along with six helicopters for anti-submarine warfare and other tasks. At least 70% of Vikramaditya’s resources go into its own air defence, leaving very little for long-range strike. INS Vikrant’s position will be similar. More importantly, ski-jump carriers are handicapped by their inability to launch heavier platforms, such as airborne early warning aircraft. The proposed third carrier would be a flat-top with catapult assisted take off (CATOBAR) capability, which could include the revolutionary electromagnetic launch system, or EMALS. This carrier would have a sizeable air component of 70–80 aircraft, multi-role fighters, helicopters and AEW aircraft, giving it a significant strike capability with long Concerns of the government around the budget should therefore be seen in perspective. The costs of the project would be spread over 10–14 years, which would make it more “manageable”. There certainly are important implications for India’s security which cannot be quantified as necessary skill sets must continue to be maintained. Time is of the essence if the third carrier is to move forward, even as new disruptive concepts and technologies are likely to emerge to challenge the economic and operational viability of aircraft carriers. New technological developments have enabled the possibility of more agile and faster ships, submarines, a spectrum of unmanned vehicle technologies – be they aerial, surface, underwater or autonomous – which will dominate maritime operational strategies with new dimensions of cost effectiveness for better reach, flexibility and application of force. Artificial intelligence–influenced operational concepts such as swarming could make the use of drones the most important element in naval warfare of the future. The third aircraft carrier is regarded as a vital necessity for the Indian Navy, given the current tensions with China, but with the Indian government delaying decisions, the chances of a decision favourable to the navy could be receding.
General Atomics EMALS is on USS Gerald R. Ford (Photo by MCS2 Ridge Leoni/U.S. Navy/UPI)