The news that negotiations between the European 6th Generation Tempest fighter team and Japan were at an advanced stage emerged during the 2022 Farnborough International air show in July but subsequently these talks have now moved on significantly and on 9 December the governments of UK, Japan and Italy issued a joint statement announcing the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). This elevates the trilateral partnership through what is described as “an ambitious endeavour to develop a next generation fighter aircraft by 2035”. Perhaps the most important new aspect emerging from the formalisation of the joint agreement is the confirmation that Japan’s next-generation F-X programme is to be merged into the UK-led Tempest initiative, which has already co-opted Italy, both nations looking towards an eventual replacement for their fleets of Typhoon combat aircraft. All three are also F-35 customers, and the GCAP is seen as a future complement to it in the late 2030s, but opening up longer-term opportunities to develop new technologies and safeguard sovereign defence capabilities - and eventually seek to exploit new export potential. This is first and foremost an exercise in defence resilience. All concerned wish to continue to work closely with the USA across the broad spectrum of shared defence interests, but at the same time have recognised that becoming too reliant on adopting US equipment severely restricts their freedom of action when it comes to developing and integrating future weapons and other advanced systems. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak expressed his enthusiasm for the agreement saying, “We need to stay at the cutting edge of advancements in defence technology, outpacing and out-manoeuvring those who seek to do us harm. The international partnership we have announced today with Italy and Japan aims to do just that, underlining that the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions are indivisible.” He was visiting RAF Coningsby, a major Typhoon base, when he made his announcement adding, “The next-generation of combat aircraft we design will protect us and our allies around the world by harnessing the strength of our world-beating defence industry, creating jobs while saving lives.” While the US government and its aerospace sector have enjoyed a continuous close partnership with Japan in the procurement of fighter programmes over the years, involving manufacturing and assembling US designs, there are signs that there is a new understanding emerging in Washington that recognises that in countering Chinese expansionism in the Pacific it is necessary to embrace and support a wider global response. That involves looking beyond potentially threatened regional governments only looking at the supply of US aircraft and weapons. Meeting Japanese expectations for greater involvement in developing new advanced air systems is one such example. Japan wants a bigger role in the future composition of its air defence assets. On news of the new GCAP agreement there was a joint statement issued by the US Department of Defence and the Japanese Ministry of Defence which declared, “The United States supports Japan’s security and defence cooperation with likeminded allies and partners, including with the UK and Italy, two close partners of both of our countries, on the development of its next fighter aircraft.” It continued, “The US and Japan are bolstering our defence cooperation in a number of promising areas, particularly in advancing opportunities for joint research, development, testing and evaluation. Together we have begun important collaboration through a series of discussions on autonomous systems capabilities, which could complement Japan’s next fighter programme among other platforms. In this context both sides have concurred to start concrete cooperation within the next year. Such efforts between the United States and Japan greatly strengthen the US-Japan Alliance and build on our cooperation with likeminded partners, further enabling joint responses to future threats in the Indo- Pacific region and beyond.”
There can be little doubt that the GCAP programme will be well-placed to capture an emerging market in the 2040s for the post Typhoon/Rafale era alongside the F-35. However the story of the F-35 has been rather mixed. Apart from a huge price tag per copy, support for and integration of new weapons and upgraded systems has been distracted by strict US controls, adding to delays and rising costs. The stealthy nature of the F-35 has also added new maintenance issues for customers. Over-complexity and high costs associated with the F-35 have helped those in Europe, and now Japan, pushing for a follow on combat air programme that allows more freedom in development and operation, as well as in-service support and an ability to adapt easily to allow new modes of operation. This will be expected to include hypersonic attack weapons, mixed combat alongside unmanned aircraft, and a high degree of autonomous operation. Completely unmanned operation might be a later development as an option. Adopting radically new approaches to rapid prototyping and fast-tracking development to achieve an entry into service in 2035, together with largely automated assembly procedures using the latest manufacturing technologies, with model-based systems engineering and open architectures, will be at the core of the GCAP initiative. Getting all this ambitious package together at an affordable shared cost that will deliver an outstanding end product will be a big challenge. At present the only potential Western rival project is the Dassault-led FCAS, and that is now lagging behind the Tempest, though both aim to get a development demonstrator into the air by the middle of this decade. The US is well into developing its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter to replace the F-22 Raptor, but this is already sky-rocketing in cost and, just as with the F-22, is likely to be unaffordable, or undeliverable, for most otherwise potential export customers. Perhaps it should be remembered that even the “Most Favoured” US allies were not permitted to buy F-22s, so if GCAP can attract a sufficiently large launch commitment (and that might already be for at least 300 aircraft for the three current partners), then it could hit the next gen fighter sweet spot. Alex Zino, Exec Vice President, Business Development and Future Programmes, at Rolls-Royce, stated, “We welcome the announcement and positive momentum we are building with our partners in Japan and Italy towards developing power and propulsion technology for the next generation fighter aircraft. In December 2021 we announced a target to jointly design, build and test an engine demonstrator. This work is progressing well and on track to deliver. This new announcement reinforces the strong and longstanding relationships we value with both Italy and Japan, and I look forward to us deepening that collaboration through this programme.” Mark Hamilton, MD Electronics UK, at Leonardo, stated, “The emergence of a single international programme, backed by three governments, represents a major point of maturity for our shared combat air vision and a strong vote of confidence in the readiness of industry to deliver the programme. At Leonardo we are privileged to be a core part of this endeavour. The future aircraft’s integrated sensing, non-kinetic effects and integrated communications (ISANKE 7 ICS) will be at the heart of the system’s capability, ensuring that our Armed Forces can effectively respond to the threats of the future and we look forward to working with our international colleagues to deliver this critical capability.” Chris Allam of MBDA UK added, “We will work with multi-national industrial partners to enable seamless integration, rapid evolution and effector networking to make any platform, any sensor, or effector, a reality.” Charles Woodburn, Chief Executive at BAE Systems stated, “The agreement with Japan and Italy is fundamental to meeting the goals set out in the UK Combat Air Strategy and is set to create and sustain thousands of high value jobs and benefit hundreds of companies across the UK, contributing to long-term economic prosperity and safeguarding sovereign combat air capability for generations to come.”
Going beyond routine
This new, formal, multi-national agreement goes well beyond a routine project launch announcement as it signals the start of the potentially biggest all-new advanced Western fighter programme since the launch of the F-35 over 20 years ago. It would appear to have sufficient initial tri-service backing to enable the already ground-breaking progress to increase in momentum over this decade so the target ISD of 2035 is realistic and doable. All the key launch partner companies are at the top of their class in terms of experience and capability to deliver and with appropriate political support at the highest levels it should go a long way to providing muchneeded additional global competition in the high-end military air sector – and the West’s leading adversaries should now be taking note of what will be facing them in the Asia-Pacific as well as in Europe. China’s desire for Air Dominance is not going to be challenged by the USA alone.