Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, CAS of the IAF has described the S-400 as “booster shot in the Indian Air Force's arm. No country is facing the kind of grave threat that India is confronted with. Intentions of our adversaries could change overnight. We need to match force levels of our adversaries,” he stated.
Despite threats of US sanctions, the government of India finally contracted for five advanced S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems with Russia, the S-400 deal being centre stage of Russia's President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India in October 2018. The S-400 has been described by Western observers as “one of the best air-defence systems extant and is considered way ahead” of the American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) equivalent.
Termed as “a game changer”, this strategic air defence missile system has mesmerised many professionals. There years back, on 13 April 2015, chief executive of the Russian state-run arms company Rosoboronexport confirmed that China had contracted for purchase of these systems, initially reported to consist of six units, “China would now significantly improve its ability to defend its air space and serve as an effective stand-off weapon against air attacks”, according to the spokesperson.
In late 2017, the President of Turkey and Russian officials signed an agreement for a delivery of $ 2.5 billion worth of S-400 units. India would be the third nation to operate the Triumf, but there are reports that more countries including Iraq and Qatar have initiated talks with Russia to acquire this advanced missile system.
Describing the S-400
The S-400 Triumf is an air defence missile system developed by the Almaz Central Design Bureau of Russia, replacing the S-300P and S-200 presently with the Russian armed forces. The S-400 was developed as an upgrade of the S-300 series of surface-to-air missile systems and entered service in April 2007, the first S-400 deployed in combat in August 2007. Russia has four S-400 units defending national airspace in the Moscow region, the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad and the Eastern Military District. The missile system integrates a multifunction radar, autonomous detection and targeting systems, anti-aircraft missile systems, launchers and command and control centre and can provide a layered defence, being capable of firing three types of missiles. Each unit will have up to 32 missiles on launchers at any time. It is expected that two units will defend India’s National Capital Region with another two to cover the Mumbai-Baroda Industrial corridor.
The S-400 Triumf air defence system integrates multifunction radar, autonomous detection and targeting systems, anti-aircraft missile systems, launchers, command and control centre. There are four different missile types: the very-long-range 40N6 (400 km), the long-range 48N6 (250 km), the medium-range 9M96E2 (120 km) and the short-range 9M96E (40 km).The system can engage various types of aerial targets simultaneously, engaging 36 targets including aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and ballistic and cruise missiles within the range of 400km and upto at an altitude of up to 30 km.
The 55K6E command and control system of the S-400 Triumf is based on the Ural-532301 mobile command post vehicle, equipped with LCD consoles to process air space surveillance data of the individual batteries. It controls and monitors long-range surveillance radar, tracks airborne threats, prioritises the threats and coordinates with other batteries. The system is also capable of exchanging data with other defence systems such as the SA-12, SA-23 and S-300.
Pakistan’s concerns … as expressed by a senior retired officer
With the Indian military set to induct five units of the S-400 air defence system into service by the early 2020s, a number of the new weapons systems are likely to be deployed on India’s north-western borders where the bulk of India’s forces are currently stationed. The S-400, widely considered as the most advanced long range surface to air missile system in the world, is set to become a game changer in the balance of power between India and Pakistan, with its deployment seriously undermining Pakistani security. The weapon's 400km range when deploying highly precise 40N6 hypersonic missiles in particular, poses a considerable threat to Pakistani aircraft deep inside the country’s territory. The S-400 will provide India with coverage over almost entire northern and western Pakistan and would allow the Indian forces to shoot down Pakistani fighters at will. Should India choose to deploy the system as far west as Amritsar, the S-400 would be able to threaten Pakistani aircraft even over Peshawar. Pakistan’s territory is long, but not deep, and this plays into Indian hands.
With the S-400 capable of engaging up to 36 targets simultaneously, including a combination of aircraft and both ballistic and cruise missiles, the weapons system poses a considerable threat to Pakistani forces in the event of a shooting war. With the S-400 designed to shoot down some of the fastest, highest flying, stealthiest and most manoeuvrable fighters in the world including the US Air Force’s F-22 Raptor air superiority fighter, Pakistan’s older, lighter and unstealthy aircraft should provide the system with little challenge - and the PAF could well suffer heavy losses in the opening hours of a conflict should this be deployed within range of the S-400. With just two units of the S-400 able to cover more than half of Pakistan’s territory, this poses a considerable threat. Even the Pakistani fifth generation light fighter jets currently under development under Project Azm are unlikely to fare well against the S-400. Pakistani support aircraft including Il-78 aerial tankers, Y-8 AWACS platforms, and Falcon 20 electronic warfare aircraft. Large and unmaneouveable as they are, these would also be denied access within most of the country’s own airspace and highly vulnerable even at extreme ranges.
Compounding this threat, the Pakistani ballistic missile arsenal, heavily relied upon as an asymmetric measure to neutralise larger Indian forces, which includes advanced platforms such as the Ghauri, Ababeel and Shaheen 3, would also be vulnerable to the S-400, with each Indian air defence unit well within its limits to intercept and destroy dozens of these missiles at a time. The result would not only be an inability of the Pakistan Air Force to protect its own skies, let alone engage Indian forces on an offensive, but also the blunting of the country’s retaliator capabilities. The implications of the S-400 therefore are truly severe for Pakistan’s security.
There are a number of measures the Pakistani military can take to strengthen its defences with the S-400 in mind. While Pakistani aircraft will be unable to effectively respond to incursions by India’s own fighters because of the S-400’s presence, the country’s own air defences will remain unaffected. While operating without air support will put an immense strain on Pakistan’s surface to air missile platforms, a strengthening of the country’s air defence network could go a long way towards denying Indian fighters control of the skies. Fortifying air defence sites and radar installations, possibly in underground bunkers as per the approach taken by North Korea, remains a highly viable option. Acquiring more advanced air defence systems, possibly the Chinese HQ-9C or even the S-400 itself, would also be a viable strategy, which would effectively create a ‘no fly zone’ for the air forces of both countries and thus nullify any Indian advantage.
Pakistan could also move to deploy long-range artillery such as its Nasr missile systems close to the border, which would be capable of targeting S-400 batteries deep inside Indian territory - thus forcing India to deploy the systems even further away from the border thus reducing the area coverage of Pakistani territory. To keep its missile forces viable, Pakistan could also invest in both submarine-launched ballistic missiles to target India from its southern coast, an undefended area which will likely not be covered by the S-400, as well as developing more advanced ballistic missiles capable of reaching higher speeds and manoeuvring in flight, all to serve in improving viability of the country’s missile forces against the S-400.
While the upcoming S-500 has been designed as the first air defence platform capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles, the S-400 cannot do this. Indeed, more advanced missiles could well be used to launch precision strikes on Indian S-400 batteries in the early stages of a conflict and thus neutralise the threat to Pakistani aircraft - while also allowing Pakistan to bring its older missiles into play.
Ultimately while the S-400 is set to be a considerable game changer, all is not lost for Pakistani forces which can take a number of measures to better handle the threat. With both countries now under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and unlikely to resort to a major open conflict to resolve disputes in future, the prospects for the S-400 being actively employed against Pakistani forces remains slim.
The official Pakistani reaction
On 19 October 2018, a Pakistan Government spokesperson stated “The Indian purchase of S-400 missile system is a part of their efforts to acquire a BMD system through multiple sources. This will further destabilise strategic stability in South Asia, besides leading to a renewed arms race. Continuing, he said that “Pakistan had proposed the strategic restraint regime in 1998 and advocating against the acquisition of BMD systems due to their destabilising effect”. He added that “after India rejected the proposal, Pakistan had developed capabilities to counter BMD systems and is confident of its ability to address threats from any kind of destabilising weapon system”.
US President’s reaction
On 11 October , US President Donald Trump said India will soon “find out” if the punitive Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions apply to it over its $5-billion deal with Russia to purchase the S-400 Triumf air defence system. Asked when, he said “you will see … Sooner than you think !”
India’s National Air Defence
In his analysis, Colonel Ajai Shukla writes that “experts regard India’s current air defence set-up as weak, with numerous gaps that a skilled adversary would exploit. Besides the shortage of fighter aircraft, India’s radar network – which should ideally detect PAF fighters as soon as they take off from their bases – has insufficient range and gaps in coverage”.
The IAF’s Soviet-era and Russian-origin SAMs, such as the Pechora SAM-3 and the OSA-AK SAM-8, have inadequate ranges of under 35 kilometres.
By 2021, when the S-400 enters service, India’s air defence will be improving. The IAF will by then have its full compliment of 272 Sukhoi-30MKIs, and the first Rafale squadron and two Tejas squadrons would have entered service.
Simultaneously, the capable Indo-Israeli medium range SAM (MR-SAM) – with a detection range of 150 kilometres, a strike range of 70 kilometres and a far higher hit probability than current missiles – would be getting inducted in significant numbers. The IAF, which funded 90 per cent of the MR-SAM’s development cost of Rs 10,075 crore (Rs 100.75 billion), has ordered 18 units.
Meanwhile the Akash SAM, developed by the Defence R&D Organisation and built by Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) is also being inducted into service in numbers. The Akash has a range of just 25 kilometres, but there is a project to upgrade that.
National air defence includes multiple layers of surveillance sensors and strike capabilities – both defensive and offensive. The most offensive air defence option, and one to which the IAF would allocate most aircraft at the start of a campaign, is to knock out enemy fighters on the ground. This requires IAF strike aircraft to penetrate deep into enemy territory after jamming enemy radars, drop cluster bombs to destroy enemy aircraft and destroy runways with deep penetration bombs.
The Israeli Air Force knocked out almost the entire Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian air forces on Day One of the 1967 Six Day War, but this is unlikely in the India-Pakistan context. Therefore, the IAF’s air defence plan must also cater for retaliatory strikes by PAF fighters.
Multiple layers of sensors detect incoming fighter strikes. Amongst the most reliable, surprisingly, is a chain of “mobile observation posts” (MOPs) all along the border – each one a single human with a radio set, trained to identify and report enemy aircraft flying across the border.
Behind the MOPs, a chain of surveillance radars looks into enemy airspace to detect aircraft activity. Looking even deeper are “Airborne Early Warning Command and Control (AEWC&C) systems, like the IAF’s three Phalcon systems, mounted on Russian Il-76 transport aircraft. From on high, where the earth’s curvature does not obscure visibility, they detect even low-flying aircraft at ranges of 400 kilometres and direct IAF fighters precisely onto them.
All these air defence elements are networked through data and voice communication channels to an autonomous “integrated air command and control system” (IACCS), which also links with civilian air traffic control radars.
The S-400 itself
The S-400 is designed as a stand-alone system, with its own radar, missiles, logistics and data networks. Therefore, each S-400 unit will provide an extra layer of protection to pre-designated high-value targets – e.g. the national capital, or Bhabha Atomic Research Centre.
However, the S-400 units will not operate autonomously, but will be quickly plugged into the IACCS. This will enhance surveillance and strike capabilities and also cross-verification of inputs across the system. “We are old hands at networking systems from diverse sources, enabling them to inter-operate. We have done it with our AEWC&C system. On board our warships, weapons and sensors from many different countries operate seamlessly. The S-400 will fit smoothly into the IACCS,” stated a senior IAF air marshal.
Each S-400 unit consists of a 91N6E Big Bird acquisition radar that detects targets, and a 55K6E command post that autonomously makes decisions relating to engagement. It would allocate each target to one of six 98Zh6E fire units, each having twelve “transporter-erector-launchers” (TELs), with four missiles on each TEL. Once a missile is launched, the fire unit’s 92N6E Grave Stone multimode engagement radar guides it to the target. Finally, each S-400 fire unit has a 30TS6E logistical support system with missile storage, test and maintenance equipment.
The entire S-400 unit is highly mobile, being carried by all-terrain, wheeled vehicles with autonomous power supply, navigation and geo-location systems, communications and life support equipment. Given that, it is ideally suited for safeguarding the mechanised units in army strike corps from enemy air attacks.
